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Flag of Yemen

Asymmetric warfare means that the weaker side utilizes unconventional means to combat the superior forces of the enemy. Thus, Yemen is now fighting back against the Saudis. In practical terms, asymmetric warfare means that Yemen can make things difficult for the Saudis to achieve victory.

The Houthis launched a drone assault against the Abha airport in southern Saudi Arabia, and they have targeted the airport with a cruise missile, wounding 26 civilians.

In addition, the Houthis conducted drone attacks on the Aramco East-West pipeline and oil stations deep within the Saudi territory. These attacks demonstrate that the outcome of the conflict is not solely under Saudi control.

Despite the horrors of famine inflicted on Yemen and the thousands of casualties, the Houthis, supported by Iran, are not finished. The outcome of the conflict, even with British and US support for Saudi Arabia, is uncertain.

Iran is thus carrying out their plan for Shia/Iran-supported domination of the Middle East. They are intent in Yemen in their support of the Houthis just as they are in supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The last rebel bastion in Syria, Idlib, may soon fall to Assad and the Russian troops assisting him. The US appears to have no intention to reverse this conclusion. Syria will become, or already has become, a Russian proxy state. Russia will have its desired seaport and Assad as her ally.

Syrian forces will then extract penalties on all resisting parties still in the country. We will never know the number of casualties.

The US never had a choice. Obama knew this, and so does Trump. We couldn’t afford to risk another failed state in the Middle East. We had no appetite for another Iraq.

And the Syrian refugees in Jordan and Turkey? Those who can return will return, to what they deem to be a country under the control of Assad. I’m told the refugees are already beginning to go back to their homeland. As amazing as it sounds, Assad has won.

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I just finished Gelvin’s new book, The New Middle East. This brief treatise is a must for all who try to keep up with the Middle East.

It is, in many ways, a sad book, because the outcome frankly seems hopeless. And I agree with the facts and most of his conclusions.

A couple of brief examples suffice. First, the educational system in the Middles East. Gelvin correctly notes that the teaching system in the area fails to emphasize critical thinking. Most of the time is spent on rote memory and repetition. This observation comports with my experience in teaching medical students. They were quite familiar with the textbooks and lecture notes. But when faced with a patient where integration of facts and principles was required, they consistently had trouble reaching a useful synthesis.

Another obvious area is the fact that women are second class citizens. Even in the best circumstance, women are not fully engaged in the betterment of their society, and this is not their fault. They are not allowed to participate as are the men. The obvious consequence is that the states in the Middle East automatically sacrifice nearly half of their possible productivity.

Gelvin’s little book is clear and beautifully written.  The readability is enhanced by his use of a question and answer format.

I recall my visit to Hodeidah, Yemen several years ago, when the country was at relative peace. The city lies on the eastern coast of the Red Sea.  The beach was not glorious and nothing like the beach on the Egyptian side where the rich Western tourists come for their vacations. We went for a swim in a deserted area and the water was not clear. We walked along the shore toward town where the fishermen brought in their catch. Unlike the Egyptians who restricted fishing in order to preserve the creatures for their luxury dive trade, the Yemenis harvested as much as they could. We stopped at a fish seller, asked them to carve off a fresh piece, and they cooked it for us over their charcoal fire. The next day our Yemeni hosts took us to an outdoor restaurant. Under a tent we ate with perhaps twenty Yemeni men and consumed the best fish and shrimp I’ve ever had.

But those days are over.

The Saudis and UAE , with US logistical assistance, are waging war against the Houthi army, the latter supported by Iran. Hodeidah is now the critical port for the shipment of supplies of all kinds into Yemen. This shipping entry point supplies more than two-thirds of the necessary goods for Yemen.  This includes medicines, food, and other life essentials. The capital, Sanaa, is utterly dependent on the shipments arriving in Hodeidah. Under bombardment from the Saudis, the supply ships can no longer safely dock at the port.

Is this the final choke point for Yemen? The country can’t survive without these supplies.

There is another possibility. The Iranians may see it as their duty to increase their support for the Houthis. Will all the combatants be drawn into a wider conflict?